摘要:隨著我國經濟的發展，資本市場將會更為發達和完善。當今，相對于國外幾百年發展歷史的證券市場，我國證券市場顯得比較落后，表現為法律法規不完善、內幕交易等違法違規行為時有發生、證券定價不科學，投資者盲目買賣等。對于股票價值定價的背后，決定因素有很多，對于這些因素組合如何同市場相結合而成為一種估值理論，還需要很多的研究。國外的通用模型固然可以洋為中用，但我國的證券市場有其特殊性，最明顯的一點就是我國資本市場不是一個自由開放的市場，而是一個相對封閉的市場，這一點離不開我國的國情。加之我國的會計核算方式，統計方式等與國際市場還不完全一致，這也致使國外這些模型不能直接應用于我國市場。開發一套適合我國證券市場的估值模型，是我國投資者當前急需解決的大事，并刻不容緩。

關鍵詞：估值模型，投資分析，投資研究

Abstract:With the development of China's economy, capital markets will be more developed and perfect. Today, as opposed to abroad for hundreds of years the historical development of securities market, China's securities market was relatively backward, showing inadequate laws and regulations, insider trading and other illegal acts have occurred, unscientific securities pricing, investors blindly trading. Behind the pricing for the value of the stock, decided by many factors, for these combinations of factors are combining with market and become a kind of valuation theory, but also need a lot of research. Foreign generic model can certainly make foreign things serve China, but China's securities market has its own specialty, the most obvious point is that China's capital market is not a free and open market, but a relatively closed market, which is inseparable from China's national conditions. Combined with China's accounting accounting methods, statistical methods and the international market is not entirely consistent, this also led to foreign model can not be directly applied to China's market. To develop a valuation model for China's securities market is the major event in China's investors need to be resolved, and without delay.

Key words：Valuation models，Investment Analysis，Investment Research

相對于國外幾百年發展歷史的證券市場，我國證券市場顯得比較落后，隨著我國經濟的發展，資本市場將會更為發達和完善。當前，我國沒有自己的一套適應當前證券市場發展水平的估值模型，投資者主要還是通過使用技術分析來指導股票的買賣，這種主觀式的投資模型，仁者見仁、智者見智，因而難以科學合理地對股票進行價值定價。對于股票價值定價的背后，決定因素有很多，對于這些因素組合如何同市場相結合而成為一種估值理論，還需要很多的研究。本論文通過選取、修改、結合三個估值與分析模型，應用于瀘州老窖的現實的估值中，具有很強的使用性和現實性，并在實踐中告訴分析師，必須與時俱進地對普通股進行估值與分析，才能穩定市場和提高投資者的收益。