譯文（字數 7626）：

走過三元悖論：資本流動和中國貨幣政策

Reuven Glick , Michael Hutchison

摘要：

    近年來，中國一直越來越面臨著三元悖論，既如何追求獨立的國內貨幣政策和限制匯率的靈活性的同時面對龐大且不斷增長的國際資本流動。本文分析了資本流動下中國的貨幣政策以及三元悖論隨著國家放寬了商品和金融市場對經濟的影響。它顯示了中國是如何通過中央銀行負債試圖隔離儲備貨幣來保證國際收支平衡。然而，我們的報告表明由于國際儲備的大規模發展，資本沖擊在2006年急劇下降。我們通過一個向量誤差修正模型來關聯中國的儲備貨幣激增的情況，從而分析真實的GDP和物價水平。我們用這個模型來探索通貨膨脹下影響不同的政策方案。在經濟增長以及儲備貨幣持續快速增長的情況下，模型預測通貨膨脹也快速增長。使用模型模擬該框架的擴展，它整合了在銀行準備金增加的情況下通脹迅速上升。相比之下，模型模擬經濟增長將大幅放緩的情況將導致通貨膨脹壓力減小以及國際儲備地大量累積。

外文原文（字符數 24609）：

Navigating the Trilemma:Capital Flows and Monetary Policy in China

Reuven Glick , Michael Hutchison

Abstract:

In recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma—how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility,while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China’s monetary policy as the country liberalizes its goods and financial markets and integrates with the world economy. It shows how China has sought to insulate its reserve money from the effects of balance of payments inflows by sterilizing through the issuance of central bank liabilities. However, we report empirical results indicating that sterilization dropped precipitously in 2006 in the face of the ongoing massive buildup of international reserves, leading to a surge in reserve money growth. We estimate a vector error correction model linking the surge in China’s reserve money to broad money, real GDP, and the price level. We use this model to explore the inflationary implications of different policy scenarios. Under a scenario of continued rapid reserve money growth  and strong economic growth, the model predicts a rapid increase in inflation. A model simulation using an extension of the framework that incorporates recent increases in bank reserve requirements also implies a rapid rise in inflation. By contrast, model simulations incorporating a sharp slowdown in economic growth lead to less inflation pressure even with a substantial buildup in international reserves.