摘 要:2005年7月21日起，我國開始實行參考一籃子貨幣的有管理的浮動匯率制度，自此人民幣開始走上了升值之路。由于匯率是各國之間貿易結算的價格，匯率變動對一國出口的影響至關重要。人民幣的升值對我國的紡織服裝的出口具有何種影響，學術界對此觀點不一。本文將針對人民幣匯率波動對我國紡織業的影響進行分析。首先將闡述2005年以來人民幣匯率改革的幾個階段，描述人民幣匯率的波動特征，并將現在的中國紡織品服裝進出口情況進行概括，將其與人民幣匯率波動的特征進行對應和比較，發現匯率的波動與紡織品服裝出口額之間具有很大的聯系。其次，運用彈性分析法對人民幣匯率波動對貿易收支的影響進行理論分析，并且具體分析人民幣匯率波動對中國紡織業的具體正負兩方面的影響。同時，運用時間序列模型對2005年至2012年的人民幣實際匯率和中國紡織品服裝出口額進行計量分析，研究結果認為人民幣升值對中國紡織品服裝出口具有促進作用。針對結果，本文對中國的紡織企業提出短期規避匯率風險、長期利用人民幣升值調整發展戰略的建議。

關鍵詞：人民幣匯率；紡織行業；影響

Abstract:July 21, 2005, our country begins to implement reference to a basket of currencies managed floating exchange rate system. Since then, RMB started on the path of appreciation. Due to exchange rate is settlement price between countries, exchange rate movements crucial influence on a country’s exports. What effect does the appreciation of RMB have on our country’s textile and apparel exports? The academic circles have different views about this. This article will analyze the RMB exchange rate fluctuations impact on China’s textile industry. First of all, we will expound several stages of the RMB exchange rate reform since 2005, describe the characteristics of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, and summarize import and export situation of Chinese textile and clothing. Throuth comparison between the characteristics of RMB exchange rate volatility and the exports of Chinese textile clothing, we found that there is a great relationship between the exchange rate fluctuations and textile clothing exports. Secondly, based on elasticity approach, we did theoretical analysis ahout the RMB exchange rate fluctuations’ influence on trade balance. Then, we expound the positive and negative aspect of the RMBexchange rate volatility on China’s textile industry. What’s more, we do metrological analysis about RMB real exchange rate and Chinese textile clothing export from 2005 to 2012 by using time series model. And we found that the appreciation of RMB has a promoting effect on the export of Chinese textile clothing in the long term. At last, we suggest that Chinese textile corporation should avoid exchange rate risk in the short term and take the opportunity on the appreciation of RMB to adjust the development strategy in the long term.

Keywords: RMB exchange rate; textile; effect