摘要:隨著市場經濟的日益飛速發展，對于財務危機預警的研究越來越受到重視。我國的證券市場發展尚不完善，近年來由于外部市場競爭的加劇和內部經營管理的不善，財務危機的現象的出現已很普遍。但企業陷入財務危機并不是瞬間的，而是一個逐步漸漸的過程。大多數陷入財務危機泥潭的企業起初都是正常發展經營的，直至其自身決策失誤或者不可抗力的原因從而陷入財務困境，管理層若不夠重視則愈演愈烈導致財務危機的出現。由此可見，財務危機是有征兆的，是可以預知的，我們也就就可以通過一定的辦法預測甚至防止或控制財務危機的擴大。所以為了在激烈的市場競爭中謀求生存與發展，我國上市公司必須建立財務危機預警系統，避免其企業財務陷入危機的泥潭之中。

　　　本文在財務危機預警的理論知識的基礎上，運用財務管理學的理論指導，再將定性與定量分析法相結合，案例分析法與文獻調查法互補應用的研究方法。選取杭州解百集團股份有限公司為樣本結合最具代表性、最成功的的Z-Score預警方法進行分析，分析得出Z-Score預警模型對于我國具有一定的局限性的結論。所以應當結合我國的實際情況做出相應的調整，選擇或者修正研究出符合公司自身發展特點的財務危機預警系統。

關鍵詞  財務風險；財務危機；財務危機預警；財務指標

Abstract:　With the rapid development of the market economy, the financial crisis early warning and more attention. The development of China's securities market is not perfect, in recent years due to poor management of the external market competition and internal management, the emergence of the phenomenon of the financial crisis has become commonplace. But the financial crisis is not instantaneous, but a step-by-step process gradually. Most enterprises fall into the quagmire of the financial crisis are initially normal development of the business until its own decision-making errors or force majeure to financial trouble, management not pay enough attention lead to the emergence of the financial crisis intensified. This shows that the financial crisis is some signs, is predictable, then the financial crisis early warning can predict or even prevent or control the expansion of the financial crisis, and also avoid the same crisis again. In order to survive and development in the fierce market competition, China's listed companies should establish the financial crisis early warning system to avoid the quagmire of its corporate financial crisis.

　　　In this paper, the basic theory and accounting, financial management and other disciplines of the financial early warning system theory as a guide, the use of normative analysis and case studies combined, the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis method. Select Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co., Ltd. combined with the most representative sample, the most successful of the Z-Score early warning analysis, analysis of Z-Score warning model for our country has certain limitations conclusions. So it should be combined with China's actual situation and make appropriate adjustments, select or correction developed in line with the characteristics of the development of the company's own financial crisis early warning system.

Keywords  Financial risk  Financial crisis  Financial crisis early warning     Financial indicators