摘要:隨著現在市場競爭的日益激烈，破產和倒閉頻頻出現在經濟領域中，基于此背景，對企業財務危機的研究在世界范圍內日趨廣泛地展開。本文在國內外財務危機研究現狀的基礎之上，界定了財務預警的內涵，分析了財務預警的功能，包括財務監測功能、財務判斷功能、財務診療功能、輔助決議功能和財務保健功能，詳細介紹了Z分數和F分數財務預警模型的概念和特點。以上海超日為實例，通過Z分數和F分數財務預警模型對其進行了財務危機的識別，發現該公司有很大的破產可能，對該公司財務危機的成因分析發現其盈利能力低、短期償債能力下降、流動負債大幅度增加、營運能力下降和生產規模擴張過快。最后針對該公司財務危機的成因，提出了財務危機治理對策。主要是完善銷售策略，降低成本，增加營業利潤；保持適度的流動負債；加強現金流量管理；催收應收賬款。

關鍵詞 財務預警；Z分數；F分數；財務危機

Abstract:With increasingly fierce competition in the market, bankruptcy and fail have become very common conditions appeared frequently in the economic field, based on this background, the worldwide financial crisis is becoming more widely deployed. The paper briefly introduce the research background, significance and research status, followed by a brief description of the meaning of the Financial Early Warning, analysis functions of the financial early warning including financial monitoring function, financial judgment function, financial diagnosis decision and financial health care function, and introduce the concepts and features of the Z-scores and F scores of Financial Distress Modeling. Taking Shanghai Chaori as an example, practices the Z-score and F score financial early warning model, has found this company maybe bankruptcy. Analyze the causes of the financial crisis. The low profitability, short-term debt paying ability drops, current liabilities have risen considerably, operation ability and scale of production expanded fast are the causes of this company’s financial crisis. The financial crisis countermeasures mainly include improving the sales strategy and reducing costs to increase operating profit ;maintaining moderate amount of current liabilities; strengthening cash flow management ; collecting of accounts receivable. 

Keywords  Financial early warning  Z-scores  F scores  Financial crisis