摘要

上市公司投資價(jià)值估值是證券分析的重要環(huán)節(jié)。不同的投資理念和投資價(jià)值方法可以使在對(duì)上市公司估值時(shí)產(chǎn)生較大的差異。自2008 年以來，中國股市大起大落，股票價(jià)格偏離其內(nèi)在價(jià)值，大多數(shù)的投資者并沒有從股市獲得預(yù)期的收益，投資者對(duì)中國目前的股市前途不免擔(dān)憂起來。目前，我國A 股市場(chǎng)上很多鋁業(yè)股價(jià)值被嚴(yán)重低估，但實(shí)際上我國鋁行業(yè)具備長期投資的價(jià)值。

本文正是在這種時(shí)代背景下，在比較分析的基礎(chǔ)上采取理論研究和實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合的方法，開始深入思考將企業(yè)投資價(jià)值研究的方法和企業(yè)的實(shí)際情況相結(jié)合得出企業(yè)投資估值的合理區(qū)間。其中，本文以中國鋁業(yè)股份有限公司為研究樣本，集中研究自由現(xiàn)金流量貼現(xiàn)模型，對(duì)中國鋁業(yè)股份有限公司價(jià)值進(jìn)行估算，為投資者的投資決策提供一定理論基礎(chǔ)的支持和決策方面的借鑒，也為投資者的投資決策在對(duì)上市公司研究投資價(jià)值時(shí)提供一個(gè)范例。

本文對(duì)中國鋁業(yè)進(jìn)行價(jià)值估值的基準(zhǔn)日是2011年12月30日，經(jīng)過研究分析得出，中國鋁業(yè)股份有限公司未來發(fā)展前景光明，具有長期投資的價(jià)值，其在2011年的內(nèi)在價(jià)值的合理區(qū)間應(yīng)該是8.95—9.28元，對(duì)比其在該日6.35元的交易價(jià)格，本文認(rèn)為中國鋁業(yè)的內(nèi)在價(jià)值被低估了。

關(guān)鍵詞：投資價(jià)值，自由現(xiàn)金流量模型，中國鋁業(yè)

Abstract

The listed company valuations investment value is an important link of securities analysis. Different investment philosophy and investment value method can make to the listed company valuations in a greater difference. Since 2008, China's stock markets falling, the deviation are between stock price and it’s intrinsic value, most investors have not achieved the expected benefits from the stock market, investors in China's current stock market are worrying to the future. At present, China's a-share market,a lot of aluminium shares value be underestimated badly, but in fact China's aluminum industry have long term investment value.

This paper it is in these times background, in a comparative analysis of the theoretical research and empirical research to the method of combining the began to think deeply about the enterprise investment value research methods and the actual situation of enterprise combining investment from enterprise valuation of the reasonable interval.

Among them, this paper takes Aluminum Corporation of China Limited as research samples, focuses on free cash flow discount model,and calculates the value of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, the investment decision for investors provides certain theoretical basis of support and decision-making reference, and for investors to investment decision in the listed company research investment value provides a example.

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited,Value valuation base date is December 30,2011,After the study analysis, with long term investment value,Aluminum Corporation of China Limited have a grander prospect ,the intrinsic value in 2011of the reasonable interval should be 8.95-9.28 yuan, compared to its trading price of 6.35 yuan on that date, this paper considers the intrinsic value of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited has been underestimated.

Keyword: Investment Value, Free Cash Flow Model, Aluminum Corporation of China Limited