摘要:全球碳排放強(qiáng)度與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展相互聯(lián)系，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重一般達(dá)到2/3甚至更多，顯然發(fā)展中國(guó)家還達(dá)不到這么高的水平，但第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展速度較快，其比重也在逐年上升，比如我國(guó)北京地區(qū)2011年第三產(chǎn)業(yè)所占比重已經(jīng)達(dá)到76%。于此同時(shí)，碳排放也已經(jīng)成為全球關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，我國(guó)作為碳排放量大國(guó)之一，政府以及相關(guān)研究者也開(kāi)始重視第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)碳排放強(qiáng)度的影響。我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放量雖然逐年增加，但碳排放強(qiáng)度卻在逐年下降，這有賴于人們環(huán)保理念的掌握以及國(guó)家環(huán)保政策的實(shí)行。本文選取江蘇省區(qū)域的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析方法，研究了江蘇省碳排放強(qiáng)度與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)各行業(yè)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)度。并且通過(guò)江蘇省與具有代表性的省市比如上海、浙江和北京地區(qū)的比較，找出江蘇省在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展上所具有的優(yōu)勢(shì)與存在的劣勢(shì)，改進(jìn)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展模式，走綠色發(fā)展道路。最后給出相關(guān)政策建議，對(duì)江蘇省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的綠色發(fā)展具有重要意義。

關(guān)鍵詞： 第三產(chǎn)業(yè) 碳排放強(qiáng)度 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析

ABSTRACT:Global carbon emissions intensity and the tertiary industry development are interlinked. The proportion of tertiary industry in developed countries is generally 2/3 or more. Obviously developing countries have not yet reached less than such a high level, but the tertiary industry develops faster, and its share increased year by year. For example, China's Beijing proportion of tertiary industry in 2011 has reached 76%. Meanwhile, Carbon emissions have become the focus of global attention. As a large amount of carbon emissions in China, government and researchers have begun to attach importance to the development of tertiary industry’s carbon intensity. Although the carbon emissions of China's tertiary industry increased year by year, carbon intensity is declining. It depends on people's environmental philosophy to grasp as well as national environmental policy implementation. This article selected statistics of Jiangsu Province region, researching association of carbon intensity of Jiangsu Province and the tertiary industry by using Grey Relational Analysis. And I Compared Jiangsu Province and other representative cities such as Shanghai, Zhejiang Province and Beijing, to find out the advantages of Jiangsu Province in the development of the tertiary industry and disadvantage, and to improve tertiary industry development model, and take the way of green development. Finally, I Put forward some policy and recommendations of Jiangsu Province’s green development of the tertiary industry which is of a great significance.

Key words: the tertiary industry, carbon emissions intensity, Grey Relational Analysis

　　　碳排放已經(jīng)成為全球環(huán)境所關(guān)注和研究的焦點(diǎn)問(wèn)題,近年來(lái)政府和相關(guān)研究者也開(kāi)始重視并且研究第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)全球環(huán)境變化的影響。伴隨著人民收入的增加，生活水平也隨之提高，同時(shí)消費(fèi)水平也逐年提高。近幾年來(lái)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，但隨之而來(lái)的卻是大量的能量浪費(fèi)，直接導(dǎo)致碳排放量的增加。由于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的碳排放量在三個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)中是最多的，所以大多數(shù)人把關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)都放在第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的節(jié)能減排上而忽視了第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與碳排放強(qiáng)度之間的關(guān)聯(lián)，大多數(shù)人認(rèn)為減少第二產(chǎn)業(yè)所產(chǎn)生的碳排放量是當(dāng)務(wù)之急，但卻忽視了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)最終的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)：隨著生產(chǎn)力水平的提高和經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)將占據(jù)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值的2/3以上，很多發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家已經(jīng)達(dá)到甚至已經(jīng)超過(guò)這個(gè)水平。基于這個(gè)認(rèn)識(shí)，我們必須正確認(rèn)識(shí)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與碳排放強(qiáng)度的聯(lián)系,分析第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中影響碳排放的主要因素與原因，這不僅對(duì)于實(shí)現(xiàn)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的綠色發(fā)展有重要意義，還能豐富第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與碳排放強(qiáng)度這方面的學(xué)術(shù)研究，引起更多人來(lái)關(guān)注第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與碳排放強(qiáng)度的研究。

　　　在全球碳排放總量的國(guó)家排名中，中國(guó)總是排在前列，將中國(guó)的低碳研究與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比，我們會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)的第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重依然過(guò)低,尤其是現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)還不發(fā)達(dá),這也是當(dāng)前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)急需解決的問(wèn)題。江蘇省作為經(jīng)濟(jì)大省，不僅要起帶頭作用，積極調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，還要在發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)上倡導(dǎo)綠色發(fā)展、低碳發(fā)展。碳排放總量的逐年增加，給環(huán)境帶來(lái)了嚴(yán)重帶來(lái)了巨大壓力，也給我們以緊迫感，減少江蘇省碳排放總量、降低碳排放強(qiáng)度是迫在眉睫的大項(xiàng)目。對(duì)江蘇省碳排放強(qiáng)度與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展進(jìn)行研究，對(duì)環(huán)境與效率來(lái)說(shuō)，都意義重大。